To review: Audio files on Northern Ireland Peace Process
https://web.archive.org/web/20060712170545/http://www.usip.org/fellows/reports/2006/0706_farry.html
To review: Audio files on Northern Ireland Peace Process
https://web.archive.org/web/20060712170545/http://www.usip.org/fellows/reports/2006/0706_farry.html
A lot of people's ears perked up when they heard this idea spoken of in the lines of Max Brooks' "World War Z" and, struck with the sense of it, they wondered if this was actually something Israeli authorities did, or if it was an invention for the book.
Robert J. Joustra wrote on The Center for Public Justice website that it is true, sort of. He pointed out that more minds don't always make better decisions: "Following the recommendation of the Agranat Commission in 1973-1974, Military Intelligence established a Control Unit that was expected to play this role of the devil’s advocate. Its responsibility was to produce a range of explanations and assessments of events that avoided relying on a single concept, as happened in 1973." The idea and role exists, but Brooks modified it out of his own mind, it looks like, carving the idea into "The Tenth Man."
Joustra quotes Irving Janis as he writes about this valuable role in groups, which Joustra terms "loyal opposition."
Janis: “The more amiability and esprit de corps among the members of a policy-making in-group, the greater is the danger that independent critical thinking will be replaced by group think, which is likely to result in irrational and dehumanizing actions directed against out-groups.”
The Yom Kippur war was a surprise to Israel and therefore a striking failure of the authorities' intelligence forces (the section responsible for this was the Research Department called "Aman"). I don't have any source for this, but one commenter on a discussion on Stack specified that there's a unit within the IDF called "Ipha mistabra" whose purpose is to doubt everything and come out with alternative theories to every regular theory the intel section has.
There is precedent for this strain of thought in Jewish history. The Sanhedrin was opposed to killing even criminals as an act of "punishment," and it happened very rarely. Among other failsafe's against wrongful conviction, there was a rule that the if the assembled judges came to a unanimous guilty verdict, the accused would be freed. The reason was that if none of the judges could find anything exculpatory about the accused, there had to be something wrong with the court.
The Vatican also has something similar, but for a sort of opposite purpose. It is a failsafe against electing saints popularly instead of on merit. This was the "Devil's Advocate" role given to one of the panel during canonization of a new saint. Their job is to find flaws in the person's character and their required miracles during the process of review.
However, even when the stakes are high, a dissenting voice might not mean anything. In the Yom Kippur war itself, the Israeli's, comfortable and confident after repeated illustrations of their military superiority and their neighbours making threats of invasion and not following through on them, found themselves on October 6, 1973 facing 1400 Syrian tanks and 1000 artillery with a rushed-into-place reserve force bringing their number up to 177 tanks and 55 artillery, and the Syrians rapidly shot towards Israel's northern settlements before being stopped, and in the south Egypt crossed the Suez Cannal and destroyed tons of Israeli tanks and aircraft with their new Soviet weapons; All this happened despite 6 months of evidence of a war buildup, doubts among two of the 3 top Israeli army chiefs, and two serious warnings from one of Aman's (Israeli's intelligence service mentioned above) - but just one - researchers, which warnings were both ignored by his senior officer, and even when photos showed the unprecedented military buildup on both borders and Jordan's King Hussein called the Israeli PM to warn him, Israel did almost nothing to prepare. They didn't think it would happen; they already believed something else.
Balboa was a regular Spaniard living in the large Caribbean island Hispaniola, attempting a life as a farmer and having gotten into significant debt, who snuck aboard a boat bound for conquest under the flag of King Ferdinand of Spain. He was escaping his debt and hopefully paying it off with won riches. His boarding the boat took place by him hiding in a wooden barrel with his war dog Leoncito, who plays a small role in his story as a vicious and useful member of the conquistador force, as war dogs commonly were. The leader of the boat was also his debtor, who he confronted and was accepted by as a member of the mission. They were initially trying to make conquests in northern Colombia (around what is now Cartagena, but was then the newly founded settlement of San Sebastian de Uraba in Nueva Andalucia). The natives there were very hostile, however, and used poison arrows, and Balboa suggested they try someplace easier, namely moving the settlement of San Sebastian to Darien (Panama), which they did.
After the initial victory in the what the Spanish made to be the settlement of Santa Maria la Antigua del Darian (in Panama), Balboa became leader of the Spanish crew. He had become popular with the crew earlier, for his personality, his knowledge of the area they were sailing, the time they all spent together in battles against the poison-arrow wielding indians of Colombia while waiting for their leader to return from Hispaniola after being injured in the leg. And now, the popular Balboa took leadership from Enciso as alcalde mayor by legal means. Because Enciso was actually on a mission for a leader who controlled a different part of the Spanish Caribbean territory, his mandate in Darien was illegitimate, and 'should be' arrested. Balboa acted as spokesperson in this action, and was afterwards elected as one of two alcaldes there (the other was Martin Samudio, who doesn't play a role in this story). There was almost another change in government when those actually entitled to rule that part of the Carbbean heard about the action's of Balboa at al, and vowed to punish him and take over, but they weren't allowed to set foot on land by the mob that appeared to greet them, and the unseaworthy boat, ill-supplied, was not heard from again.
Balboa's leadership was cemented when, while he was away attacking another village, the malcontents in his party who were left behind formed an insurrection in order to appropriate the large quantity of gold they had all won, and distribute it among them. The leader of this insurrection, however, wanted a greater portion for himself, and this led to dissatisfaction with his leadership, and recalled the usefulness of Balboa as leader, who had been fair in distribution of spoils. Balboa was passing his refuge away from the village with a party of his supporters in the jungle, and when the envoy from the settlement reached him to ask him to return as leader, and swore to obey him as leader thereafterward, he initially acted like he didn't want to go back to the thankless job, but after seeing a letter about how he was being tried as a criminal against the crown in Spain, he did return (is that the letter or am I forgetting?)
This led him to undertake the mission he is famous in history for. They had discovered by chance, from one of the offhand remarks of one of the princes they were dealing with, of a very gold-rich land to the south, which they could reach by "the other sea." Balboa sent for more men to undertake this mission (he had been told by the prince that he would need at least 1000 men), and Balboa sent a request to Spain but these didn't come. Since his case was being heard in Spain and to his disfavor, he now (it was September 1513) made the journey of about 68 miles (110 km) across the Panamanian Isthmus, making battle here and there with various tribes. The journey all in all took 24 days to reach the mountain where he saw the South Sea, then another 5 days down to the coast, encountering with his band of 100 Spanish soldiers (accompanied by 1000 indian carriers, and not counting his other 90 soldiers he left in a defeated village to provide him with an escape route if later necessary), overwhelming them easily with the combined power of war dogs, fire arms, crossbows, swords, and plate armor, losing only a couple of men killed or injured. He reached the coast after dispatching three parties of 12 of his men first (the first man to enter the then-called "South Sea" was one of these men. He claimed the ocean for the Spanish crown. They arrived September 29 and named the place San Miguel. Because they had travelled south to the new sea, he named it "The South Sea." The tribes living there were respectful of his superior power, and gave him all the gold and pearls they had, showing him where more could be found. In return they were happy to receive European shirts, glass beads, etc., which had more value to them than gold and pearls, which had barely any value. He conquered a few villages to the south on the coast, then tried to push on to the islands of pearls nearby, but was canoe-wrecked right away since it was the season of storms, and returned back to the beach. He took a different route back to Antigua, and on the way back to the Spanish settlement, laden with so much gold and pearls the party wasn't able to carry enough food and water (and some died of this along the way), they encountered other tribes which fled or put up little fights.
Meanwhile, back is Spain, the public matter of Balboa's actions had been discussed for about a year (I think), since some enemies of his returned and charged him with illegally taking control of Darien (Panama and northern Columbia today). He was seen in the light of criminal, which was a strong impetus for his finally leaving the Caribbean coast where he had established his local power (the site of a preexisting tribe's village, composed now of 200 straw-thatched huts, 500 Spaniards, and 1500 indians, growing richly with gardens of produce, the site of his first conquest, where he had married the daughter of the local ruler in his hut after the day's battle, and by accounts was basically in love with her) to find for Spain the farther ocean, which none had yet found (at the same time, Magellan was circumnavigating the globe, travelling down the Atlantic Coast of South American, rounding Patagonia northwards a little, but then directing himself Westward to the Pacific Islands and then Indonesia, and it wasn't until half a century later in the 1570s the English sea captain Drake sailed around South America from the easternmost point of Brazil and around and north all the way to California (or perhaps Canada, we don't know the details of his secret mission for Queen Elizabeth).
However, Balboa was now able to dispatch to the queen a couple of his men, laden with the fifth of gold entitled to the King, the largest and best of the pearls, and news of Balboa's "great discovery" and claiming for Spain the South Sea, and opinion of how to frame Balboa as a Spaniard changed.
Now Darian shone with a new light to Spaniards, too. It was now to be referred to as the "Golden Castile," (before that it was being called "New Andalusia") and since for Europeans gold was the driving purpose for activity in the New World, that for which they went, which they volunteered, braved risks, fought, died, and killed for, which purchased peace with the native tribes, which purchased favor in the Spanish court, which was the subject of conversation in Spain,
Before Balboa's own emissary could reach the king with his gifts and story, Kind Ferdinand had spent 50,000 crowns on a mission there, in which there were to be 2,000 soldiers with arms, equipment and money, and a person more fit in the eyes of the king to take over control of the realm instead of Balboa. (Also religious men, and an order that no lawyers should be permitted to practice there, however one lawyer did go, as alcalde mayor (chief judge), Gaspar de Espinosa.
When Pedrarias (the man appointed by the king to rule Darian) arrived, he found the present leader, Balboa, overseeing the rethatching of his fairly humble straw house, rather than seated in golden opulence.
In the months that followed, Balboa was imprisoned by Pedrarias and in all events that followed Balboa was nothing but meek and subservient to all sources of authority, at length protesting to the priest who on his behalf arranged a marriage to Pedrarias' and his wife Dona Isabel's eldest daughter by signing an contract (the daughter was in Spain) and sending for her to solemnize the wedding when she arrived. Through this a peace was formed, which may have benefited Pedrarias as Balboa's potential future achievements would serve both.
During this time, King Ferdinand had sent a messenger with news that he had made Balboa adelandtado of the great South Sea, and governor of the provinces of Coyba and Panama, while Pedrarias was left governor of the Caribbean side, with a note that in this position Pedrarias was to expand the king's interests as befitted his position. Balboa's position, however, while he had been placed over the valuable lands while Pedrarias' were fairly valueless, was subject to the authority of Pedrarias, and Balboa agreed to a term with Pedrarias whereby Balboa would not exercise the authority he had without approval of Pedrarias.
During this time, other envoys were sent out to the tribes, but these did not find the easy victories Balboa's first encounters had had. Many were defeated and returned defeated, among some victories. Balboa, too, when he was released and allowed to undertake another mission (to construct ships, assemble them on the Pacific, and sail south to the land of riches many tribes had told him about) met with his first defeat to the natives. In this defeat, he had a co-commander appointed by Pedrarias, who died by a spear to the chest while Cortez was only injured after a force of indians attacked their canoes in their own canoes, and many drowned when the indians plunged in the water to overturn their boats, or died from the arrows of the indians. The natives also attacked and harried the land in and around the Spanish settlements, so that people lived in fear of their houses all being burned down. Indian chiefs united in some cases to drive the Spanish out of their lands. In part this was said to be due to the behavior of the Spanish, worse than Balboas, with regard to torture and taking of women and children.
The 2,000 Spanish who came brought a good amount of provisions, but a large portion were found to have rotted, and a serious famine was felt in the settlement. 700 died. Some others left for Cuba in a boat. Others returned to Spain. Others hired themselves out as laborers to eat, and could be seen selling their last valuables in the streets. All without ever starting on any missions or using the weapons and equipment they had brought.
The means by which Pedrarias was able to get rid of Balboa finally was this: Another governor had been dispatched from Spain to take over for Pedrarias (not sure about 'take over'), but died in the harbor. Balboa was not sure where he sat in all these changes, because if the new leader took over for Pedrarias, the new leader's favorites might be appointed to take over instead of Balboa. He therefore sent a messenger back to get a clear picture of what was going on in the settlement. He chose a man who he had long served with but who, according to the stories, bore him a grudge because while paying court to Balboa's indian princess wife was seen by Balboa and reprimanded. When this man, one Garabito. A condition of Balboa's marriage to the governor's daughter was that he cut off relations with his indian wife, which Balboa had of course agreed to. However, when Garabito was apprehended in Antigua and treated as a spy, he let slip that Cacita (the princess who had still not returned to her father, perhaps partly because she may have been viewed as a traitoress after betraying her brother, who had been trying to save her before the impeding planned attack of Balboa's first settlement, into torture at Balboa's hands, in which he was forced to relate the entire military strategy, which was then foiled by a preventative attack by the Spaniards)... that Balboa had sent for her to come to the Pacific. The idea was that Balboa was setting up his own station of government there, which doesn't seem likely to be true, but was true enough for Pedrarias, who charged him with treason (punishable by death). When Cacita was questioned she confirmed it. A message was sent to the coast to Balboa that he come to Antigua, and although he questioned the messengers, they did not tell him what was going on there, and despite the protests of his men, he went. He was put in shackles immediately by Pizarro (who had also long served under him), tried, and executed, along with four of his men who had participated in warning or supporting Balboa.
He was executed (decapitated) in 1519 at age 43 or 44. He had been by that time ten years in the Darian, having left Hispaniola in 1509, and it had been six years since he discovered the South Sea. By the time he left Hispaniola in 1509, however, he already had experience in conquest and sailing around the Caribbean, as he had crossed from Spain in 1501 on a treasure-finding mission for the king, and it was with his share of this mission that he had settled as a farmer in Hispaniola.
Books to find as pdfs:
Music to check out:
Faye Wong, Mitsuko Uchida playing Schubert and Debussy, Kelly Moran, Can’s Lost Tapes, Dennis Russell Davies and Maki Namekawa performing four-handed Fidelio by Beethoven, Talk Talk… early blur,
Corporate and Regular WordPress-style websites made for content:
To find your processor, type
cat /proc/cpuinfo
Go to https://www.cpubenchmark.net/cpu.php?cpu=Intel+Core+i7-3520M+%40+2.90GHz&id=890
...
x230, 2846, 1726
Intel Core i7-3520M @ 2.90GHz (2012)
...
L380 Yoga, 5810, 1885
Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-8250U CPU @ 1.60GHz
...
GPD Pocket 3 8", 9350, 2445
core i3-1125G4 (2021)
...
Acer Aspire One (2009), 157, 234 sic, and other processors had more, like up to 500 or so
Intel Atom N280 @ 1.66GHz
...
...
UPDATE from 2020-04-01 April. I ended up getting a new machine, mostly because the x230 something else failed on it every month, most noticeably the battery (replacement I bought a couple months ago because the original died in a week or two) which is usually completely unchargeable. Not a problem with the machine, but with German Amazon that advertises it as being basically new but really it arrived chipped, broken, and things started failing on it immediately and continued. Also, I was unable to post a review (negative) or comment to warn others. It seems Amazon Germany sensors reviews, so other people now are buying the same machine from the same company.
I ended up getting a 380 Yoga because it's more than twice as powerful by benchmark numbers as my x230, and has touch screen and yogas. It has only 8gig of RAM but it's expandable. It also uses M.2 which is reportedly faster than my SSD cartridges for the x230. So far though I'm frustrated and want to seriously just smash this machine to pieces for satisfaction. I don't know why companies can't make products as good as they did 8 or 10 years ago in computers. Problems with the 380 Yoga (note: running Ubuntu Studio 20), and I put in a 1tb Samsung m.2 hard disk which appeared to be faster than the original but I'm not sure:
Posiitives: - It does seem to run VMs faster. The Windows7 VM with Ableton seems to respond faster than on x230. Not fast enough to actually play midi notes (you hit a key and then hear the note), but faster anyway, noticeably.
To me, this machine seems like you'd use it sitting on a desktop, but if that's what you want to do, why wouldn't you use a 17 inch or greater? As a portable it's kind of a piece of shit so far. The inability to buy in 2020 a machine that suits my needs is very frustrating. If Sony's VAIO can support linux and they make a Yoga touchscreen for their tiny 11 or 12-inch, 1 pound computers I would buy that at basically any price.
I'm thinking now to get another x230, despite being less powerful, and being careless with this Yoga 380 until it gets stolen or broken. Or maybe just sell it.
What pisses me off is the people at Lenovo can't make a decent machine to compare with something made by other people there 10 years ago. All they have to do is make it a bit smaller (mostly thinner) and lighter and more powerful, and put on a yoga touchscreen which they had 10 years ago (although then they used a swivel screen I think, as did Elitebook).
ORIGINAL BLOG POST:
Reminder because I keep forgetting what's wrong with them.
(Another reminder: It's at least an option to get one of these, then run Win7 Ableton in a VM. There is lag you won't be able to get past, especially as regards recording live audio [not fully tested]), but it's an option. You also would have to learn how to pass a midi keyboard through into the VM if you want to use that [with lag probably too]. This method basically converts Ableton into just a sequencer, because the time lag is like half a second, for example, for a midi note played through the computer keyboard. This is worse than it sounds, because in practice you will play something, then hum a little melody, but you won't be able to add that melody to your song except through extremely difficult processing.)
Probably for music production the best way is Win7 (no internet) with Ableton. This sucks, but Bitwig is shit, and also you can't plug audio into the X230 using Linux because 1)the mic doesn't work it seems and 2)your preferred audio interface also doesn't work (no drivers on the newer Ubuntus for it, plus even if you get it working its big and you have to plug it in. Do you really need internet on your laptop? Can you just use your phone for that? Still, that means no touch screen to arm tracks and press record.
TO CONTRAST WITH: Thinkpad X230 i5 with 16RAM. Good: Good enough to do all the programs. Can swap SSDs. Can swap RAM ("socketed RAM," not soldiered). Doesn't look valuable. Isn't costly.
Kickers: Only 4500benchmark i5 (2300 or something on other website). Kind of thick and heavy, compared with ideal (ideal is like an Acer Aspire V5 11.5inch plastic laptop). Does not Yoga or have touch screen (although there is a swivel/touch X230). Battery only a couple of hours (once you hack the Lenovo hardware whitelist).
TARGET: 12-inch or less, very small, very light (1.5pounds or less), Linux-friendly, access to swappable SDD card, access to swappable RAM slots, powerful (at least around 8000 benchmark). Good battery life. Touch screen. Yoga-ing ability. Swappable battery.
(Purposes: audio processing, video processing.)
New Thinkpads: none under 13.3 inch most larger, plus limited storage disks, it seems, and all 3 pounds or more.
Thinkpad x390
Around the same width as x230 (0.7 inch), 13.3 screen.
13" laptop is designed with a 12" footprint. 2.7 pounds.
As equipped with the Core i7-8565U, the ThinkPad X390 posted excellent benchmark (like 8250). This four-core, eight-thread chip has just a 1.8GHz base clock, but an impressive 4.6GHz Turbo Boost.
The storage is tweakable via an M.2 Type-2280 slot (under the bottom panel) for PCI Express solid-state drives (SSDs). Lenovo offers up to 1TB options.
14 hour battery
KICKERS: RAM is soldiered in and not upgradable (or fixable). Not sure if it can take bigger than 1TB SDDs?
https://www.pcmag.com/roundup/330389/the-best-lenovo-laptops
https://www.pcmag.com/review/369042/lenovo-thinkpad-x390
https://www.lenovo.com/us/en/laptops/thinkpad/thinkpad-x/X390/p/20Q0002EUS
https://www.windowscentral.com/how-upgrade-ssd-your-lenovo-thinkpad-x390
Thinkpad L390 (Front runner because its fairly swappable and has touchscreen and yogas. Main problem is it is a bit big and heavy)
This is a business-class laptop. A bit bigger than I'd like, and metal. It has good ports, and comes with the 8900benchmark i7-8565U 4core i7 (like basically all these laptops in 2019). It has 2 removable RAM ports (so you can go up to 32gig). It also Yogas (keys don't lock on this one, they just don't function), and has a touch screen and a pen with its own charging bay. Battery life about 6 or 7 hours (less than X1 Carbon by far or other more expensive Thinkpads). Also built to operate in really high temperatures for long periods of time.
Stickers: 3 pounds a bit heavy, size a bit big. Has that hard disk that screws in (so I can't just slide my 2tb ssd in, I guess, like I can with an older machine).
DELL XPS 13 9380
12 inches and 2.7 pounds. 11 hour battery. $900 and up. Soldiered RAM up to 16GIG.
Is it Linux-friendly? What's up with the ports?
Dell Latitude 7390
At 0.7 by 12 by 8.2 inches
12 hour battery
SONY VIAOS (would be great if they had touchscreen, Yoga-ed, and had swappable RAM)
Sony is making some nice little VAIO's again like the SX12. They're very small, and super light (like 1.5 pounds I think, or 1 pound). Size is good. They come with the 8900benchmark i7. They have good ports, including VGA. I think they have decent battery life. This is like a nicer version of the Acer Aspire V5 11.5 inch.
Kickers: I think RAM is soldered on up to 16GIG. They do not Yoga. They are not touch screen. Price is high for some (1200 and up), considering the things they don't do. Battery life only like 5 hours (not the 10 they say). They run really not like 90 when doing lots of processing (not dangerous to CPU hot but hot). Smaller trackpad. Harder to take apart (lots of phillips screws, then use a guitar pick to pry it apart).